Two Boxers in a China Shop
Mood:  blue
Now Playing: The Laura Ingram Show
Topic: Two Boxers in a China Sho
The recent firing of seven ballistics missiles by North Korea represents a grave threat to not just the United States of America, but to the entire Asian region. This must be clearly understood. For even though the much-feared Taepodong-2 failed shortly after launch, the second failure for this class of missile, the mere fact that North Korea proceeded with the launch of it and six shorter-range Scud siblings proves that they have every intention of pursuing an openly hostile foreign policy. This is not about “getting attention,” as some pundits have remarked. Heck, if Kim Jong Il just wanted attention, he could simply announce that he intends to STOP all future missile tests. Not only would such a message guarantee loads of attention, it would also open the spigot of international aid! No, this is not about a child acting-up in class, this is about a despotic government hell-bent on achieving its own nefarious goals of becoming the regional bully.

The greatest indicator of North Korea’s truly malevolent motivation is not the launch of the missiles per se, but the manner in which they were launched. North Korea, with what could be termed ‘malice of forethought,’ deliberately chose to conduct their provocative swarm-launch during an American holiday, namely Independence Day. The real significance of this date has nothing to do with any sort of deliberate attempt to disrupt American fireworks and grilling, but a calculated decision to conduct their inflammatory test during a period of time when American reactions could be expected to be at their slowest. In a fashion similar to Imperial Japan’s decision to attack Pearl Harbor on a lazy Sunday morning, North Korea decided to launch its missiles when a sizable portion of America’s civil government, and military establishment, was out of location for patriotic celebrations. This realization should clearly demonstrate just how much sinister intent Pyongyang possesses…and this should send a chill down the spine of every American.

I suspect a large reason for such North Korean adventurism is a classic miscalculation of American resolve. Look at the board from the communist perspective: First, they know we are fighting in Iraq, a war that is putting something of a strain on our armed forces (largely minor, but still noticeable). This would seem to work in their favor as a major Korean War would be a huge drain in resources for the Iraqi campaign, and “run interference” for any concurrent Iranian adventurism (recall that Iran is in the same Axis of Evil as North Korea). Second, the Iraq War, a low-intensity war if ever there was one, has proved to be politically divisive. I would argue that the incessant nay-saying from the Murtha/Kerry Left has fostered what they would perceive as a continuation of the Vietnam-era "cut-and-run" mentality, a belief which we now know had deluded both Hussein and Bin Laden into their warmongering ways. Furthermore, they understand that Bush has used much his political capital in Iraq---how likely would it be that President Bush could, yet again, rally other nations behind another war, a conflict that will be far more brutal than anything the world has seen since the LAST Korean War? These factors would all be perceived as definite pluses in their column; individual items that would seem to inhibit decisive military action on the part of the United States. But there is even a bigger plus in their column….

Any war with North Korea would have a decided outcome---America would win. This is not bombast but fact for, while America’s military might continues to implement the latest in cutting-edge technology and technique, North Korea’s armed forces have been virtually frozen in time since 1989. This is not to say North Korea would prove to be a paper tiger in the fashion of Middle Eastern armies, they would not, but despite greater zeal and training, they would not be able to hold their own against American might for long. The problem, rather, is with the fact that North Korea occupies one of the worst geo-political locations on the plant for a brawl. Unlike the numerous wacky Middle Eastern regimes that have occupied our attentions during the on-going War on Terror, North Korea is ideally positioned to do real long-term damage to Western interests even during a limited conflict. Both South Korea and Japan are indispensable economic regional powerhouses…and both are within easy striking distance of North Korean missiles and, in the case of South Korea, artillery. The potential economic collateral damage alone would be enough to disrupt the world economy and usher in a global recession. After all, what do you think would happen when video of Seoul (or Tokyo) in flames hits the airwaves? I think we all know how the Dow Jones, and just about every other major financial exchange, would react. And what about the humanitarian disaster a renewed Korean War would prove to be in such a highly populated region? The resulting refugee crisis alone would far outstrip Asia’s capability to deal with such an event, making New Orleans experience with Katrina look like a mere dress rehearsal. In short, like two boxers in a china shop (no pun intended), a war between America and North Korea would shatter more than a few items of great value (and I am not even considering what would happen if WMDs were used). North Korea is gambling that no sane nation would ever take the risk. It is a good gamble too, hence the reason why South Korea has been so reluctant to take even the wimpiest of retaliatory sanctions to punish recent North Korean transgressions. This geo-political reality dominates the issue to the great benefit of North Korea.

So what is to be done? There are only two real choices: prepare for war or prepare for appeasement. There is no middle ground. Anyone who believes that, despite over a decade of failed uni- and multi-lateral negotiations, diplomacy will yet succeed is living in a world of fantasy. You cannot negotiate with people who wish you harm. Since North Korea has already violated numerous diplomatic agreements in the past, why would they honor any new agreement? And, no, China is not the answer to this question. Indeed, in light of the recent defiant launches, it would seem that China has either limited pull with North Korea (as they ignored Chinese warnings against launching) or China simply does not care to apply any seriously coercive force upon their ally (which has been amply demonstrated in the past and in very recent post-launch diplomatic shenanigans). China is no ace in the hole, it is just a hole of despair because, truth be told, China enjoys being able to tie-up American, South Korean, and Japanese assets while China itself prepares to reassert itself on the global stage. Working with China on this issue is no different than when the Allies were forced to work with Stalin’s Soviet Union during World War Two. They will provide limited help…and then only with an eye towards their own benefit.

That leaves war. I am not, however, arguing for an immediate pre-emptive strike because that would be a de jure violation of the cease-fire agreement. But I am arguing for a drastic change in diplomatic posture. How? First we need to put together one last, generous diplomatic peace offering that will help the North Korean people while ensuring regional security against North Korean WMD aggression. But unlike the on-going talks, these will have a decided, if generous, time limit. This will make it abundantly clear that our patience is not inexhaustible. If North Korea does not take this proffered package of peace in a timely fashion (an acceptance that must be carefully verified by American inspectors), then we need to make it abundantly clear that all military and covert options are on the table, that our policy of isolation has been superceded by a policy of active engagement. In a fashion that mimics Ronald Reagan’s approach to the Evil Empire, America and her allies need to start actively working to bring down this dictatorial regime via whatever means necessary---including the aggressive utilization of yet another Reagan idea, an anti-missile shield. An effective missile defense is the sin quo non of any future plan for regime change on that peninsula. With an effective shield in place, America and her allies can fearlessly take off the gloves because North Korea will have been denuded of a big portion of her offensive claws. With those claws blunted, the manhandling of the “Hermit Kingdom” can begin.

It is imperative that this change in our policy position toward North Korea be perceived not as a mere bluff, but as a real plan to end Kim Jong Il regime if he fails to change his ways. By making this harsh fate abundantly clear to Pyongyang, even though it means abandoning all this nonsensical talk about ongoing six-party negotiations and replacing it with some riskier saber-rattling of our own, America will eventually regain the initiative. Simply put, we will be calling North Korea’s bluff after which they will be forced to “put-up or shut-up.” Knowing the inevitable doom the rejection of such a peace offering holds for them (or further aggressive action on their part), a doom unleashed at a time and place OF OUR CHOOSING (as opposed to THEIR choosing), I think it is likely that they will shut-up and begin cooperating. And if they don’t, at least we will begin taking some positive steps towards finally ending this regional menace.

In short, it is time to stop playing the part of Mr. Nice Guy and start reminding two-bit tyrants, such as Jong Il, why America is referred to as being a SUPERpower. It is time to stop playing defense. Do we need to repeat our history with Hitler? Do we need to be reminded that appeasement does not work? That it only guarantees greater and greater aggression until, as thunder surely follows a bolt of lightning, a miscalculation ignites a massive war? In light of post-September 11 events, it is sadly clear that much of the world has forgotten such hard-won wisdom. Fortunately, it is equally clear that America has not. The rest of the world seems quite content to continue playing games with yet another very dangerous nation bent upon belligerence. It is time that America, with customary foresight and courage, remind the globe of our obligations to ensure world peace and stability. We need to take a page from Roman history and offer North Korea one last opportunity to grasp the olive branch of peace. If they refuse, then we bring the sword and heal this festering wound of the Cold War.